But what if it’s not fine? Even back in 1996, before a single component of the ISS was launched into orbit, NASA foresaw the possibility of an even worse worst-case scenario: an uncontrolled reentry. The crux of this scenario involves multiple systems failing in an improbable but not completely impossible cascade. Cabin depressurization could damage the avionics. The electrical power system could go offline, along with thermal control and data handling. Without these, systems controlling coolant and even propellant could break down. Unmoored, the ISS would edge slowly toward Earth, maybe over a year or two, with no way to control where it is headed or where its debris might land. And no, we could not save ourselves by blowing the station up. This would be extremely dangerous and almost certainly create an enormous amount of space trash—which is how we got into this hypothetical mess in the first place.
Let’s now imagine that the station is depressurized and, for the first time in decades, empty, operated entirely via computers and remote control. First, NASA and its partners must accept the need to deorbit—there’s no going back to save the ISS. This could be complicated: 23 countries in the European Space Agency, as well as Japan and Canada, are involved in the ISS partnership. And then there’s Russia. The Russians have committed to supporting the ISS only until 2028. But they did agree to help NASA in a contingency deorbit situation.
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